On today’s show we discuss last week and this week’s 2018 primaries with Denise from California.
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Prediction Models show Dem surge
Fivethirtyeight put our their projection model for control of the House of Representatives and it gives Democrats 3 in 4 (or 75%) chance of taking the house.
Their model shows an 80% gain of between 14 to 58 seats. Dems need only 25 to take control.
Some of the interesting things to note:
Leadership in the Republican Party survives with Kevin McCarthy given a 99 out of 100% chance of winning.
Cathy McMorris Rodgers a 5 in 7 chances of winning.
And Jim Jordan, accused of knowing about sexual abuse when he was a coach, a 70% chance of winning.
In Ohio’s 12th, Balderson and O’Conner are a tossup with the Republican just barely edging out the Democrat O’Conner.
Justice Democrats attacked by media
Fivethirtyeight also did a spotlight on the justice democrats and tried to do an analysis on how well they are doing with the electorate.
According to our data, 41 percent of candidates who received an endorsement from one or more of these progressive groups5 won their primary races. The most successful progressive group was the PCCC; the candidates it endorsed won about 67 percent of the time.6 Justice Democrats and Our Revolution had the worst win rates — candidates they endorsed won only 32 percent of their primaries (but they also endorsed more people overall, giving their candidates more chances to lose).
Bernie Sanders responded to a tweet by Nate Silver about this very issue on MSNBC . Take a look:
But even Fivethirtyeight acknowledges something even more important. When is a win a win? Bernie Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton, but he lost in part because he moved Mrs. Clinton closer to his side.
Even Fivethirtyeight seems to acknowledge the same:
Although those endorsed by progressive groups may not always win, in many races they are shifting the policy debate and forcing favored candidates to at least address some of their progressive stances. Take, for instance, Andrew Cuomo, New York’s incumbent governor. Since Cynthia Nixon, who has won endorsements from all five of the progressive groups we analyzed, announced she would challenge Cuomo in the Democratic primary, the governor has changed his tune on marijuana legalization and announced new progressive plans like voting rights for parolees.
Listen to the show here:
This is the TYT video discussing the primaries this week. Courtesy of Denise: