S3E32: 2020 Debate. All eyez on warren

On The World As I Like It To Be podcast we discuss what to expect for the debate this evening.  The debate will be on CNN 8pm EST.

For the first time we will have a single night with 12 candidates.  They are:

Biden,  Warren, Sander, Buttigieg, Harris, Yang, Booker, O’Rourke, Steyer (new comer), Klobuchar, Castro and Gabbard (returning).

Everyone is going to want see how Bernie holds up after having a stent put in after a heart attack.  Is the pace of the campaign getting to him?

Elizabeth Warren has risen in the polls.  According to the Hill she enters the debate with momentum.  Will she leave the same way?

Listen to our view on what to look for tonight, right here:

Ohio slipping

Can democrats beat Donald Trump without the industrial mid west? A senator from there, Sherrod Brown, is one of the most liberal senators in Congress.  So perhaps Ohio is winnable for Democrats.  But it won’t be easy.

According to the Hill, Republicans have solidified their hold on the state since Obama’s win in 2012:

Democrats are skeptical about their chances of winning the state back, but party officials and strategists stress there is a path to victory, in part, through the state’s suburbs, where polling shows Trump’s support is wearing away. 

The party’s choice to hold its fourth Democratic debate in the Columbus suburbs speaks to that goal of making inroads with the suburban vote. 

“The common theme of all this shifting is that suburbs, where the debate is, are shifting from red to blue,” Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper told The Hill. “The path to victory for [former Ohio Gov.] John Kasich, or even Bush against Kerry, that really relied heavily on major margins of victory in the suburbs.” 

Republicans largely dominated House races in Ohio in 2018, holding on to 12 districts Trump carried in 2016. Democrats carried four districts won by presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. 

It’s important to note the state has been gerrymandered to death.  So much so, a federal court ruled in favor of democrats earlier this year

But as has been discussed on this blog before, the Supreme Court ruled the federal courts have no ability to judge gerrymanders that are politically motivated. 

As Elana Kegan put it in her 5-4 decent Ohio Democrats have never won more than four of 16 House seats despite winning between 39 and 47 percent of the statewide vote.

The only remedy has been either ballot initiatives or what happened in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Lawsuits on the state level.  The US Supreme Court seems unwilling to overrule a state level Court decision.

That decision by the high court has lead to the lower court dismissing the judgement.  An appeal to the high court was thrown out just last week.

This means, unless a ballot intuitive or lawsuit is filed in the state courts,  the same partisans map is expected to be used for 10 years when the census is redrawn in 2022.

I’d say, yes. The democrats have lost, at least, Ohio.

Warren on the attack

Just before tonight’s high profile debate, the Massachusetts Democrat appears to be going after other candidates, according to a post on Medium where she has a blog.

She has posted:

“If Democratic candidates for president want to spend their time hobnobbing with the rich and powerful, it is currently legal for them to do so — but they shouldn’t be handing out secret titles and honors to rich donors,” Warren wrote in a Medium post with her latest plan on campaign finance. “Voters have a right to know who is buying access and recognition — and how much it costs.

As mentioned in the podcast, the attack could be seen as flip flop as Warren once embraced taking money from the wealthy in the general, but has now backed away from that.

Has she backed herself into a corner?

The downward spiral after a school shooting

Gun violence will surely come up in the debates tonight. But no one really talks about the aftermath, about what happens to a school, a community, a town after a school shooting.

According to Politico at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla. test scores of students took a nose dive after last year’s famous shooting.   

The same is true of a school in Santa, Fe, Texas where a school shooting took the lives of two teachers and eight students.

The Parkland school was at the bottom of a list of schools dealing with children and drug abuse.  Since the shooting it shot up 20 percent.   Drug use in the county as increased dramatically as well. 

Lauren Hogg, a 16-year-old Parkland survivor who co-founded March for Our Lives, told House lawmakers during a school security hearing last month that she and her friends are re-traumatized with every new shooting and that “every single aspect” of her life has changed.

In Texas, the school district in Santa Fe increased security and police presence because of increased incident of misconduct among students.

The school district in Santa Fe has boosted its security and police presence because of increases in student misconduct requiring disciplinary measures, according to its grant application. But their presence has also helped students experiencing a “continued fear factor of attending school” have a feeling of safety, the application said. Students will require emotional and mental health help “for the coming year and for years to come.

The district has hired a crisis communications firm, which is helping to establish a Citizens Advisory Task Force, and it continues to rely on support personnel to track student absenteeism. Faculty and staff still need additional training in self-care, trauma-informed strategies and suicide awareness and prevention to assist traumatized students.

“Based on data from districts who have experienced similar strategies, the incidence of suicide increases following the one-year mark of the tragedy,” the application said.

It’s important to remember. When the shooting stops the damage is only just beginning.