S3E36: debate review finale history of cfpb

On The World As I Like It To Be podcast we discuss the final and perhaps most important exchange of the night. Where should the democratic party be fighting its battles?

With Sander and Warren for structural change or with Biden and others for moderation?

This is a liberal podcast, so listeners should know where we stand by now. Moderation in a world of globalization, of international social media and of global climate change requires a radical response.

Due to inaction and a Republican party that has spiraled down toward authoritarianism, we have lost a lot of time and a lot of ground. Bold action, as Bernie says, is needed.

Then we discuss the fires and trouble in the largest progressive/democratic state in the nation. California. The golden state is dealing with a lot of different issues right now.

How is the governor handling it and is the specter of Gray Davis hovering over him:

Listen in:

The next debate

The next debate has been announced.  It will air on MSNBC and moderated with The Washington Post.   The following have qualified for the Nov 20 debate:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  • Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris
  • Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana
  • New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
  • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
  • Billionaire Tom Steyer

I am surprised to see Tom Steyer on this list and surprised that Amy Klobuchar is not on the list.

Julian Castro has said he will exit the race if he cannot get proper funding by October 31.

Biden’s numbers still look good

As mentioned in the podcast, if Biden is on shaky ground his polls numbers do not agree. A new national poll by CNN shows the former VP 15 points ahead of his nearest rivals Warren and Sanders.

This mirrors a similar poll from Survey USA which said Biden was ahead of Warren by 15 points in California.

This is good for Biden, I think. If people think he is sinking in the polls Biden is done for.

The interesting thing to look at is, if Sanders or Warren decide to pull out, will their voters go to the other candidate or will they go to , say, Mayor Pete or Sen. Klobuchar?

Fivethirtyeight, who’s graphic we used for the podcast and blog, has an article that seems to indicate, supporters for almost all the candidates, also like Warren.

…a fifth of former Vice President Joe Biden’s supporters weren’t considering supporting anyone else, a higher share of exclusive supporters than any other candidate. Likewise, 14.6 percent of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s potential supporters weren’t looking anywhere else.

Overall, more respondents were considering Biden than Sen. Elizabeth Warren (56.5 to 52.1 percent), but Warren actually shares a lot of potential supporters with the other candidates. Take the rest of the top five candidates — Biden, Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The lion’s share of voters who were considering each of those four were also considering Warren — even though Biden had more total potential supporters.

Fivethirtyeight goes on to say, not only the top tier candidate’s supporters would support Warren, but even the bottom tier candidates have Warren as their second candidate.

I write all of that to say, as the field begins to narrow and people begin to drop from the race (I do not expect Sanders to drop from the race), Biden is going to have a tough time holding on to that lead.

Warren, the Banks and the 13 Keys

Almost with glee the Warren campaign seems to be enjoying the fear that her run for president has caused Wall Street. Today the campaign tweeted out approval for the following video:

After watching that video, it should not come as a shock that the CEO of DIcky’s department store is said to be mulling a run for president as an independant. But if Republican donor Ed Stack thinks it will hurt Warren, the 13 Keys says it will only hurt Trump.

For those who may have forgotten the 13 Keys is a book by Allan Lichtman. I discuss the findings here. And for those interested in the book, you can find an a link* (#ad) to the book here:

According to Lichtman, a third party run from an independant works AGAINST the party in power.

The History of Warren and the Obama Admin

Some have been waiting for a reckoning between Warren and Biden. As a private citizen Warren was grilled, in 2005, by the then senator from Delaware (whom many called the senator from the bank MBNA} Joe Biden.

The hostility and the disdain for one another was palpable. Fast forward some years and, as I said in the podcast, Warren would go on to become a thorn in the side of the Obama administration.

In a Politico piece it talks about the disdain some in the former president’s administration had for Warren:

…interviews with more than 50 top officials in the Obama White House and Treasury Department, members of Warren’s inner circle at the time and Warren herself, reveal a far more combative relationship between her and the administration than she discusses on the campaign trail. Tensions between Warren and Obama were palpable to White House aides, even as she reserved her real fury for Geithner and White House National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, whom she regarded as predisposed toward big banks over families struggling to save their homes.

For Warren, the years of the financial crisis are now the touchstone of her political career, validating the conviction at the heart of her presidential candidacy: The system is rigged.

‘You did a hell of a job’

Many are looking at the debate and Biden’s shout and Warren’s somewhat meek ‘Thank you’ as a moment with a lot to it.

Inc’s Minda Zetlin framed the debate this way:

To many female viewers, watching Biden talk to Warren was a reminder of the thoughtlessly highhanded comments they’d had to endure from men throughout their working lives.

As I mentioned in the podcast, the image of Biden screaming and pointing at Warren, looks bad for Biden, good for Warren.

Who should get credit for CFPB

The incerpet got into the wayback machine and looked at the history behind the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. They found the following:

According to former White House officials Jared Bernstein and Austan Goolsbee, Biden was supportive of including the CFPB in the broader package. And there’s no reason to doubt that in White House meetings, Biden did indeed voice support for it.

Bernstein has publicly commented that Biden “fought hard to get votes for Dodd-Frank,” presumably by talking to his colleagues in the Senate.

But the insistence that Biden had anything whatsoever to do with rallying support for the CFPB in the Senate left many other people closely involved scratching their heads.

“In all honesty, that was news to me last night,” said Jim Manley, who was communications director for Reid at the time. A senator closely involved in the fight, who didn’t want to speak on the record, said that he never heard from Biden. A former Senate staffer who worked on the bill told us, about Biden’s claim, “I needed a drink when I heard that.” They added that Biden and his staff were not involved in any Hill meetings on the subject or engaged in the legislative process in any fashion.

As to who should get credit…

David Axelrod, the president’s chief advisor, makes it clear on who should get credit. From the New York Times:

David Axelrod, who was Mr. Obama’s top political adviser during the battle to create the C.F.P.B., called Ms. Warren’s role a “bona fide credential” for the presidency.

“There aren’t that many people who can say they had an idea, wrote about it and ended up bringing it to fruition, in terms of the creation of a whole new government agency with a very focused mission,” Mr. Axelrod said.

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